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Spør Clark S. Judge om valget i USA
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| Clark S. Judge leder i dag et rådgivningsfirma med tidligere kolleger i Det hvite hus. |
Etter å ha jobbet som taleskriver og rådgiver for Ronald Reagan og George Bush senior, kjenner Clark S. Judge det politiske spillet i USA fra innsiden.
Judge mener at Barack Obama blir en mye svakere presidentkandidat enn mange tror.
Les hvordan han svarte på lesernes spørsmål om den amerikanske valgkampen.
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Hi After the two last elections, where George W. Bush won against Al Gore and John Kerry, both elitist candidates. There has also been signs that Obama will also turn out to elitist to the white labours. Will the republican machine manage to turn McCain to the "Down to earth-trustworthy-guy" and Obama to the "drinking wine with his liberal friends-guy". And will that strategy work today, with Obama using his strategy of change? to get to the conclusion. What strategy do you believe the republican party will use to secure the win?
Kåre, Akershus
Clark S. Judge The key to winning this year will be drawing sharp distinctions on issues: what Obama supports and opposes v. what McCain supports and opposes. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Greetings mr. Judge. As you might know, Ronald Reagan has been very supportive of Rep. Ron Pauls political views over the years. With a policy of less taxes combined with less federal spending, the abolishment of several "unconstitutional" federal institutions, the restauration of a sound US currency and a non-interventionist view on foreign policy, he is the only real conservative in the presidential race at the time. Also, his grass root campaign is still drawing a huge number of dedicated followers unlike anything we have ever seen in the US primary elections. In a time where the mass media have such great possibilities for giving people the information they need, I have to ask: Why are the great majority of people in the United States totally oblivious to Dr. Paul and the real conservative values of personal liberty, property rights and non-interventionism that he represents?
Rakafanten, Oslo
Clark S. Judge Lots of people -- most people, I believe -- favor liberty and property rights. But he's also an isolationist, and that position does not enjoy wide support, at least in the Republican Party.
Do you think that the Republicans have a better possibility of winning the election with Obama as candidate for the Democrats than they would have had with Hillary Clinton?
Judith Willassen, Vardø
Clark S. Judge No. This is a good year for the Democrats. Either Democratic candidate will be tough to beat.
Do you think age will matter in the final election? McCain is quite old and does not look too healthy, whereas Obama looks young and dynamic.
Solveig, Oslo
Clark S. Judge As I said earlier, McCain is vigorous and the population generally is older. I don't believe it will matter much. Some? Maybe. But not much.
I find it interesting that McCain keeps making claims that are either questionable or factually wrong, such as saying that Ahmedinejad is the most powerful person in Iran, claiming that the troop level is back at pre-surge levels and that Al-Qaida was trained by Iranis. He also claims that a city like Basra is "peaceful" (possibly not his exact word), despite there being frequent terrorist attacks there. Do you believe the Democrats will - and should - attempt to use such claims against McCain or if they will abide from doing so because it could potentially backlash given some of Obama's somewhat questionable positions in foreign policy?
Jan, Oslo
Clark S. Judge They will use these missteps and already have. But the state of the war will be a central issue, perhaps the central issue. Mr. McCain will make the case that the recent developments in Sadr City, Basra and Mosul reflect that we are on the right track and that abandoning Iraq would at this moment be a catastrophe, both to Iraq's and to global security (a position I share).
What do you think of the media's love for Obama? I've never seen so one-sided media coverage as I've done here. And especially european media has done everything it can to promote Obama, and throw dirt at Clinton. They almost seem desperate! Why?
Tom, Oslo
Clark S. Judge They're in love.
And as a follow up: What steps must he take to ensure that he does not waver in his own beliefs when he has to convince traditional Republicans that he is conservative enough to vote for?
Rasmus, Oslo
Clark S. Judge He must be forthright and emphasize issues where there are strong differences between him and Mr. Obama.
From the presentation to this public net-interview, It was claimed you think the current, and growing, US economic recession might blow over by the November elections. On what basis do you reach that conclusion (if it is true as represented)? Secondly, how will a McCain precidency reverse the sinking tendency of the dollar and the domestic US economy?
Roy Dybing, Bergen
Clark S. Judge I wrote a piece not long ago (you can read it on my page at www.whwg.com) about Mr. Bernanke's analysis of the Great Depression and what he and the Administration are doing now. I won't go into all of it here, but te gist is that a bank run (which is what we have in essence had) creates a confidence crisis that leads to a drop in the money supply. Restore confidence and the the money supply returns to normal. If he's right, we should see (despite his cautious statements) a quick, strong recovery. If so, with it will come a need to mop up the liquidity, which will lead to a recovery of the dollar.
How much credit Obama deserves for his amazing speeches. Does the candidate take part in shaping them, or are they usually just written by staff members? How did Reagan and H. W. Bush approach this? Thank you for answering this question!
Jan, Oslo
Clark S. Judge The speaker always gets the credit. Even if he didn't write the words, he shaped the message, set the tone and assembled the team. This is true of all people at this level
I always support your GOP candidate, and was as many conservatives hoping for a candidate of Ronald Reagans stature. What will Christians and conservatives do on the election day? Will McCain be able present conservative credentials as a true conservative candidate. In that respect I am not impressed. Only when it comes to the military am I pleased. Of course I am not voting, but I am always very interested. God Bless America.
Helge S, Oslo
Clark S. Judge Many thanks. I feel he'll do just fine with Christians and conservatives when election day comes. He isn't in the exact mold off our recent candidates, but he is vastly closer than Obama, in many ways closer that he is seen as being.
How can USA tell the world that they are a democratic country as long as politics are dependent on millions of dollars and only the rich can be a candidate? There seems to be no difference between the political parties, it seems like a one party system for the people with lot of dollars....
Wanda Hansen, Stavanger
Clark S. Judge Well, I feel there are enormous differences between the parties, differences that are at times almost too large for coming to any kind of consensus. This is one of the issues in Washington today -- inability of government on some important issues to act. Entitlement reform being an example. As to money, the current campaign is driven by small donors, not large.
Hello I've got two questions for you, Mr Judge. 1. Who can Mr Obama appoint as his VP nominee to strengthen his chances? I think he needs a strong security candidate (i.e.) not Hillary Clinton. An example could be Gen W. Clark. What's your thoughts on that. 2. Who do you think will be Mr McCain's VP nominee, and why?
Johan Marius, Oslo
Clark S. Judge 1. He has lots of options: look for the Ohio governor or Virgian Senator Webb. 2. See above.
Hello mr. Judge. if McCain wins this year's election, what will be the main differences between the current president and McCain?
Ole, Oslo
Clark S. Judge He'll be much more aggressive in cutting domestic spending. He'll push the military even harder on resolving the war. He'll work to fix entitlements.
Mr Judge I have two questions: Why has McCain gathered more support than Ron Paul? In a hypothetical McCain administration, are we likely to see some of the same profiles from the current administration in positions of power? Thank you for your time.
Ola, Oslo
Clark S. Judge I'd expect a very different team in a McCain Administration than in the Bush one. If elected, McCain will want to draw a strong distinction between the future and the past. As to Ron Paul's supporters, they seem disaffected from both parties. My guess is that a lot are first time voters still looking with which party to land.
Mr Judge, On what grounds do you claim that McCain is a stronger candidate? Isn´t that bound to be colored by your subjective opinion, or do you base this purely on some sort of statistics? You also claim that the "middle class decay" is false, what about the working class?
Thomas, Oslo
Clark S. Judge Does my subjective opinion color my thinking? Yes, doesn't yours? Do I have statistics? Yes. In a year that should favor the Democrats enormously, he has been running even with both Obama and Clinton. That refects his strength as a candidate, not the strength of his party. Middle class/Working class? Same. Census figures of family income by quintiles show an at least 30 year trend that suggests that all levels of the population are moving up. There seems to have been a leveling off of this progress in the last eight years, but not a fall back -- and it is not clear if some or all of that leveling is a result of shifts in working patterns not captured in the data sets.
A number of people are proposing an Obama - Clinton dream ticket. Judging by Mrs Clinton's reasons for staying in the race, would becoming Obama's VP in fact be her biggest chance of becoming President?
T Henrikson, Scotland
Clark S. Judge Yes. But I feel he'd make a mistake if he were to take her.
It seems like Obama attracts younger voters to the pools in a larger number than most other politicians. Will this have any effect on the congressional and the senatorial elections? And can we expect some new policy initiatives from both sides to attract the younger Voters?
Erik Kristian Olsen, Catskills, NY
Clark S. Judge I don't think younger voters are moved by specific "youth" appeals, so no, I don't expect either candidate to trot out programs aimed at young people. And while Obama has one well with younger voters in Democratic primaries, that doesn't mean he'll do well with young Republican and Independent voters
What are the strength and weaknesses of John McCain?
Magnus, Oslo
Clark S. Judge Strengths: Strong character. Right on foreign and national security policy. Right on taxes -- and spending. Weaknesses: Tough year to be a Republican.
If Barack Obama can't win swing-states like Pennsylvania and Michigan (due to his lack of appeal to the so called "Reagan-Democrats"), is there any way he can win in November?
Mats, Oslo
Clark S. Judge If he can't, he probably can't win. But a primary is not a general election. Everything starts anew as of this morning.
Hello mr. Judge! Do you think John McCain will be able to win the "reagan democrats"? Who is your favorite for McCains running mate?
Inge Andersland, Bergen
Clark S. Judge Yes. I like Senator Lieberman, the Democrat turned Independent. I think naming him would make a strong statement on national unity during a war and I believe his record on domestic matters will be -- given the circumstances -- OK with the GOP base. I should tell you, lots of people say I'm nuts.
Aftenposten writes in an article that you wrote the famous Brandenburger speech by President Reagan, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall". Your name is not mentioned in the National Archives piece that he wrote about how he wrote the spech. Is Aftenposten wrong?
Nordman, DC
Clark S. Judge No, I did not write it. Peter Robinson (now at the Hoover Institution) did.
Please name what you think will be the three most important topics during the final presidential campaign this fall. Thank you very much.
Borgen, Oslo
Clark S. Judge The economy. Iraq. health care/immigration
First of all; let me say it's an honour to have the occasion to address someone with your level of experience on this issue. As you say; Mr. Obama has been moving towards the left on many issues despite his claim of being a bi-partisan and somewhat moderate candidate. Because of the current situation, there seems to be little enthusiasm among traditional Republican voters; which will force Mr. McCain to energise conservatives, while at the same time following his own moderate beliefs. Do you think Mr. McCain will be able to keep his popularity among independents, conservative democrats and disillusioned Clinton supporters all the while energising the GOP?
Rasmus, Oslo
Clark S. Judge It will be a trick. Mr. Obama is a formidable candidate. But he is very liberal. Mr. McCain will depend on voters seeing the strong policy differences between him and Mr. Obama. Until now, particularly among conservatives, he has been compared primarily to himself.
Dear Mr Judge, Until now, Obama has mostly delivered speeches and talking points so general that they border on nonsense, plus, of course meaningless slogans which insult one's intelligence ("We are the ones we've been waiting for"). His debating skills have mostly been miserable, and the messianic aura around his campaign probably scares many moderates. Where does he go from here? How will his campaign be reshaped? Thanks.
Raul de Sana, Oslo
Clark S. Judge He could do all that in a battle with his primary opponents, with whom he agreed on virtually all issues. Now things changes. I expect his rhetoric to become more specific.
John McCain is 73 years old, how much will his age affect his campaign? Do you think more people will vote due to the special circumstances?
Republican, Oslo
Clark S. Judge Given the rising age of the entire population and his enormous vigor, I don't think age will be much of an issue.
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